The Stats says the Bulls

The Bulls will charge to victory over the Stormers in the Super 14 final in Orlando Stadium on Saturday.

The Stormers and their fans may protest that such a statement is premature, but the statistics are so compelling that it is probably efficient rather than erroneous to engrave ‘Bulls’ on the trophy before the final.

Statistics, history and the punters favour the Bulls to outscore the Stormers in the final at Orlando Stadium in Soweto.

The Bulls’ finals record is intimidating to any opposition for they have won all four finals matches they have played as the home team.

The Bulls, of course, are not playing the 2010 Super 14 final at their Loftus Versfeld fortress, but the decision to stage their semi-final against the Crusaders at Orlando Stadium did not back fire.

Their 39 points against the Crusaders in the semi-final was not so much an anomaly as it was an indication of the team’s attacking ability. In their four finals matches, the Bulls have turned their ability into a trend, recording victories by margins between 13 and 44 points.

Furthermore, this season saw the Bulls score more points than any other Super 14 team – 436, at an average of 33.5 per game.

Of course, they are playing the Stormers, the team who boast the best Super 14 defence of 2010, having conceded just 171 points at an average of 13.1 per game, and who thrashed the Bulls 38-10 as the Pretoria side rested 14 players in the final round of the regular season.

But finals matches in South Africa have tended to be high-scoring affairs; eight of the nine finals played in the South Africa have been decided by 13 points or more – suggesting that offence rather than defence is the best form of attack.

The exception to this rule is the 2007 final between the Sharks and the Bulls, which was decided by a single point. But it was the Bulls who were exceptional on that occasion, winning 20-19.

The Bulls also find little to fear in the intra-South African nature of the final, for the have won nine of their past 10 South African derbies – and 20 of their past 23.

Further statistical reason to tip the Bulls?

The team that finished the regular season in top spot has won eight of the past nine titles. The team who finished the regular season having scored the most points has won 11 of the 14 titles. And the home team has won seven of the nine finals matches played in South Africa.

Stormers fans, then, seemingly have no reason to get excited for the weekend.

But they do have Bryan Habana.

The winger, who scored the final-winning try in 2007, and two as the Bulls crushed the Chiefs in the 2009 decider, has been on the winning team in all five Stormers-Bulls matches he has played – including that 38-10 shellacking this season.

Four of those victories, of course, were achieved in Bulls colours.